中文摘要：

生态承载力预警是判定生态系统可持续承载的重要依据。利用状态空间法和人工神经网络模型对洞庭湖区生态承载力进行预警分析,结果表明：（1）景气预警上,洞庭湖区2001～2010生态承载力整体上处于中警状态,反映出湖区生态、资源、环境与社会经济发展的协调性较差,生态系统可持续性较弱。洞庭湖区17个区域单元生态承载力出现了重警、中警和轻警三种状态,2001年、2005年和2010年3个年份的区域差异及变化相当明显。（2）景兆预警上,2015年洞庭湖区生态承载力接近轻警状态,可持续承载能力由弱可持续向可持续转变;相比2010年,17个区域单元的重警和中警比重分别下降了33.3%和18.2%,轻警比重上升了100%,体现了洞庭湖区国民经济和社会发展＂十二五＂规划纲要和环境保护＂十二五＂发展规划合理,生态环境保护和修复计划有效,生态调控措施得力。（3）利用BP神经网络模型可以科学地预测预报生态承载力未来发展趋势,判定区域经济、社会和生态的可持续性;模型的应用可靠可行,预警结果可以为区域生态系统的可持续发展提供科学依据。

英文摘要：

Forecasting system for ecological carrying capacity is an important basis to determine ecosystem sustainable carrying.By using state-space techniques and artificial neural network,the ecological carrying capacity of forecasting system for Dongting Lake region was analyzed.The results show that（1） about cycle early-warning,the ecological carrying capacity of Dongting Lake region from 2001 to 2010 was in a moderate warning status,which reflected the ecology,resources,environment and social economy development were in poor coordination and the ecosystem was in weak sustainability;the ecological carrying capacity in 17 regional units of the Dongting Lake region appeared three forecasting states,including light,middle and serious;three years of 2001,2005 and 2010 had quite obvious regional differences and changes.（2） About omen forewarning,the ecological carrying capacity of Dongting Lake area in 2015 will be near to light alert,the sustainable carrying capacity will change from weak sustainable to sustainable;compared with 2010,the proportion of serious warning and middle warning will decreases constantly by 33.3% and 18.2%,and the light warning is increasing constantly by 100%,which reflects the 12th Five-year Plan of economic and social development and environmental protection in Dongting Lake area are reasonable.（3） It was also proved that the BP neural network model can be used to forecast ecological carrying capacity future trends scientifically and determine sustainability of regional economy,society and ecology,the application of the model is reliable and feasible,the forecasting results can provide a scientific basis for sustainable development of regional ecosystem.