中文摘要：

以HadCM3气候模式在A1B气候情景下对未来2020s（2011—2030年）时期的气候预测结果进行降尺度计算，预测钱塘江常山港流域未来2020s的降雨和气温，而后使用萨克拉门托模型模拟A1B情景下气候变化对流域出口断面径流量的影响。研究结果表明：2020s的日降雨和日蒸发的年最大均值较之基准期有增大趋势，其中降雨的年最大平均值增大15．9％，潜在蒸发增大4．2％，然而模拟得到的常山站出口径流有减小的趋势。使用线性矩方法计算常山站基准期和2020s的设计洪水，出口断面的设计洪水有一定的减小趋势，五年一遇的设计洪水相对变化值达到36．04％。

英文摘要：

Climate projections for 2020s （2011--2030）, derived from HadCM3 under the A1B emission scenario, was downscaled to the Changshan River Basin located in the upstream of the Qiantang River Basin. The impact of climate change on the runoff of the basin outlet was investigated using the Sacramento model. The results show that the mean annual maximum value of daily rainfall in 2020s increases by 15.9% compared with the baseline, and 4.2% for potential evapotranspiration, while the simulated runoff has a decreasing trend. The design floods of Changshan Station in these two periods are calculated using L-moment method, which shows a decreasing trend as well, and the five-year design flood has a maximum relative change up to 36.04%.