中文摘要：

枯水水文是水文学的重要组成部分,枯水与人类的生产生活以及生态息息相关。但与洪水相比较,枯水水文的研究并没有得到足够多的重视。气候变化与人类活动对全球和区域水资源的影响是当前研究的一个重点和难点。本文利用统计降尺度的方法来预测气候变化下金华江流域未来的降水和温度,同时结合萨克拉门托模型预测金华江流域的径流,最后对基准期实测径流和未来模拟径流的枯水指标7Q10和30Q10进行了比较,结果表明,在温室气体排放情景A2和B2两种气候情景下,这两个枯水指标都有明显增大的趋势。

英文摘要：

Low flow is an important component of hydrology. It is inextricably bound to our life and economic activity. But little attention is paid to it compared with flood. Impact analysis of climate change and human activities on water resources is a hot issue of current research. This paper projects the precipitation, temperature and flow of Jinhua river basin during the next 30 years. The main method is Statistical Down Scaling model and Sacramento model. Two low-flow indices 7Q10 and 30Q10 are computed from observed and simulated flows. The results show that 7Q10 and 30Q10 both increase under the two scenarios.