中文摘要：

气候变化引发降雨径流等水文要素的变化已经成为学界的共识，浙江省内近年来频发的气候极端事件更是引起众多学者的重视。枯水水文作为水文学的一部分，分析其变化有其积极的实际意义。选取了金华江流域1975-2004年的日降水、温度和径流资料，使用多站统计降尺度方法，基于最新CMIP5中的Hadgem2＿ES模型，利用GR4J水文模型模拟了未来（2071-2100年）的径流，重点分析了几个重要枯水指数7Q10和30Q10的变化。结果表明，未来这两个指数都有明显的上升趋势，即气候变化可能缓和金华江流域未来的枯水情况。

英文摘要：

It is a common view that climate change has influenced hydrological elements such as precipi-tation,temperature and river flow.Zhejiang Province has witnessed the climate extremes with high fre-quency in recent years and it has drawn a lot attention of hydrologists.Low flow hydrology is a very im-portant part of hydrology.It is quite meaningful to analyze the low flow.The historical daily precipitati-on,temperature and flow in 1975 -2004 in the Jinhua River Basin are used as baseline data in this stud-y.Climate projections from Hadgem2_ES of CMIP5 for 2070-2100 are downscaled to station-scale pro-jections based on a multi-site statistical downscaling model GIST.The flows in future period are generated by a lumped hydrological model GR4J.Two typical low flow indices 7Q10 and 30Q10 are calculated and compared.The results show that the two indices have obvious rising trends,implying a better situation in low flow periods under climate change.