中文摘要：

本文构建了基于省级层面的人口模型和养老金统筹账户收支模型，并据此预测了未来各省城镇职工养老保险统筹账户的收支余额。结果显示：（1）我国城镇职工养老保险统筹账户的年度余额和累积余额在未来存在较大的省际差异，在前两个测算时点（2025年和2050年），部分省份存在收支结余，而部分省份存在收支缺口，到测算期末（2075年），所有省份的养老金均存在缺口；（2）人口省际流动对养老金收支平衡将产生一定影响，人口的净流入使养老金收支状况得以改善，反之，人口的净流出导致养老金收支恶化；（3）出生率的降低恶化了各省养老金收支状况，且这种作用对经济欠发达地区更为显著。

英文摘要：

Using a population evaluation model and a pension pooling account income-expenditure model, this pa- per projected future balances of the basic pension schemes for urban workers of different provinces. The results showed that ： （ 1 ） The annual balance and cumulative balance of the basic pension pooling accounts will have big differences between provinces in the future. At the first two projection points （2025 and 2050） , there are surpluses for some provinces, but deficits for others. At the end of the projection period （2075）, there are deficits for all prov- inces ; （2） Inter-provincial mobility of population will affect balances of provincial pension schemes. The net inflow of population will lead to improvement, and vice versa; （3） Reducing birth rate worsens pension balances, and this effect is more significant in underdeveloped regions.