中文摘要：

本文在未来各年龄别育龄妇女生育率稳定的假设框架内,找到TFR与生育率的转化路径。在1.1~2.1的6个未来TFR方案下,分别测算了我国未来人口和劳动力供给的规模与结构。研究发现：随着TFR指标升高,我国未来人口及劳动力供给结构得到优化;TFR指标每升高0.1,2050年我国的总人口规模平均上升4453万,劳动力供给总规模平均上升1726万。可以认为,单独二孩政策的实施,对于维持劳动力供给规模、优化人口和劳动力供给结构,是及时、必要和有效的。但是该政策的实行,既要注重劳动力规模的维持与结构的优化,又要注重控制总人口的快速增长。

英文摘要：

We try to find the transformation path between TFR and fertility rate under the under the assumption of stabl$ fertility rate in every age. By given six TFR values differing from 1.1 to 2. 1, we calculated the quality and structure of Chinese labor supply in future. We find that the structure of population and labor supply in future will be optimized with increasing of TFR value. For every increase of 0. 1 of TFR value, the number of Chinese population in 2050 will increase by 44. 53 million, as well as the number of Chinese labor supply in 2050 will increase by 17. 26 million. We draw the conclusion that the implementation of alone two-child policy is timely, necessary and effective, because it is benefit to keep the quality of labor supply as well as opti- mize the structure of population and labor supply. However, both keeping the quality as well as optimizing the structure of labor supply, and controlling the rapid increasing population should be pay attention to.