中文摘要：

基于1978年～2007年的数据,用动态计量方法研究农业和农民收入的互动关系,结果表明：在长期内,农民收入的农业生产弹性约为1,而在短期,农业发展会降低农民收入,出现增产不增收的现象;无论长期和短期,农民收入的增加对农业发展都具有较强的促进作用,这表明农民既是农业的生产主体,也是投资主体。此外,当农业生产和农民收入达到一定水平后,它们各自都将会产生一种自我增进机制,从而促进农业的持续发展和农民的持续增收;反之,若农业发展落后、农民处于贫困状态,在没有外力的帮助下,农业可能被落后＂锁定＂,农民则可能陷入＂贫困陷阱＂。

英文摘要：

Based on the data from 1978 to 2007,this paper examines the interactive relationship between agriculture and farmers＇ income by using dynamic econometric method.The empirical analysis show that：in the long run,the elasticity of farmers＇ income to agriculture production is 1;but the increase of agriculture produce value can decrease the farmers＇ income in the short term,which leads to the phenomena of increasing production without increasing income;on the other hand,the increase of farmers＇ income can promote the agriculture production whether in the short or the longer term,which shows farmers are the main body of agriculture produce and investment.In addition,when the farmers＇ income and agriculture production achieve a certain level,a continuous self-promotion mechanism will be set up,which might help to promote a continuous development of agriculture and a steady increase in rural incomes.On the contrary,the backward agriculture and impoverished farmers will result in a standstill of the agricultural development if with no help.