基于金融信息采集系统所采集的互联网金融信息流时间序列,对股市收益率进行了分析与检验,通过对比多个时间序列模型,最终构建了EGARCH—GEI)模型,将信息量与收益率两者联系起来。在此模型的基础上,完成了一个设想的实验与分析:在特定时间段向互联网中注入金融信息,金融市场波动情况是否会受到影响,影响程度有多大。通过编程实验得出定量分析结果:金融信息量增加时,金融市场的波动也随之增大,并当信息量增大数倍时,波动才可以摆脱随机因素,显著地受到信息量的影响。最后指出用互联网金融信息量分析股市波动的可改进之处如基于内容的分析。
After comparing several time series models, established the EGARCH- GED model to analyze the price - earnings of Dow Jones Industrial Index based on the financial information which collected by our system. With this model ,gave our conjecture that whether and how the financial market will be influenced if offer lots of financial information to the Internet. Through our experiment, found the results that the volatility of financial markets also increased with increased financial information. But only in the condition that the amount of in- formation increases several times, the fluctuations will escape the affect of random factors and significantly impact by the amount of information. At last point out some improvement of this analytical method such as content - based analysis.