本文利用1999-2013年中国31个省市区面板数据,构建面板联立方程模型,实证分析收入差距和房价与农村剩余劳动力转移的关系。研究发现,收入差距与房价之间存在正向互动关系,收入差距对房价的作用程度更大;房价对农村剩余劳动力的影响显著为负,表明城市高房价制了农村剩余劳动力转移。进一步研究发现,房价对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响存在显著的区域异质性,对东部地区农村剩余劳动力转移的抑制作用远远大于中西部地区。同时,研究还发现收入差距对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响显著为正,收入差距的扩大会强化房价对农村剩余劳动力转移的"挤出效应",而产业结构服务化能够弱化房价对农村剩余劳动力转移的抑制作用。
By using the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1999 to 2013,this paper builds the panel simultaneous equation model to analyze the relationship between income gap,house price fluctuations and the transference of the redundant rural labor force. Estimation results show that there is a positive relationship between income gap and the housing price. The housing price has a significantly negative impact on the transference of the redundant rural labor force. It indicates that housing prices rose sharply inhibit the transference of the redundant rural labor force. Further study finds that housing prices impact on transference of the redundant rural labor force has a significant regional heterogeneity. Housing prices in the eastern region of transference of the redundant rural labor force inhibition is far greater than the mid- west regions. At the same time,it finds that the income gap has a significantly positive impact on the transference of the redundant rural labor force. And the influence of income gap enlargement has strengthened the housing "crowding out"of transference of the redundant rural labor force,and the transformation of industrial structure can weaken the inhibition of the housing prices for the transference of the redundant rural labor force.