中文摘要：

在边坡稳定性评价中,安全系数是常用的方法,但其不能考虑岩土参数实际存在的不确定性,而概率统计中的可靠度理论可对参数的不确定性进行模拟.为了更加准确地对边坡进行稳定性评价,可将安全系数与可靠性联合起来,对实际边坡的稳定性进行二元评价.设安全系数服从Gumbel极值I型分布,取一组步距一定的中值安全系数和变异系数,在边坡每个中值安全系数的不同变异系数下,计算得到破坏概率Pf的一个矩阵,进而算出可靠度,将中值安全系数与对应的可靠度相乘,得到边坡稳定性的二元评价指标.根据三峡库区某段滑坡的岩土体参数,用矩估计原理估算部分参数,得出参数的所有组合后,计算出所有的安全系数和破坏概率,用前面绘制出的边坡稳定性分区图检验,结果与实际工况相符,说明基于Gumbel极值I型分布下边坡稳定性判别可用于实际工程中.

英文摘要：

In the slope stability evaluation, safety factor is a common methodl but it can not take into account the actual uncertainty of geotechnical parameters＇s reliability theory in probability statistics can simulate the uncertainty of parameters. In order to evaluate the slope stability more accurately, a two element evaluation system for the coupling of safety factor and reliability is established. Supposing the safety factor obeys the Gumbel extreme value I type distribution and taking a set of median safety coefficients and variation coefficient with a certain step distance, a matrix for failure probability of slope Ps is obtained l multiplying the median safety coefficients with the reliability of the slope, a two-dimensional evaluation index of slope stability is ob- tained. According to the parameters of rock and soil in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, some parameters are estimated by using the moment estimation principle l all the combinations of parameters, all the safety factors and failure probabilities are calculated, and then to test them by using a zoning map of slope stability plotted in the preceding. The results agree well with the actual engineering situation, so as to show that the two ele- ment index system for slope stability identification is feasible.