中文摘要：

以长株潭城际铁路线下工程沉降变形观测评估项目为依托，研究长株潭城际铁路隧道沉降的发生发展规律，通过现场实测数据，发现隧道沉降量普遍偏小，分别用双曲线拟合法和灰色预测模型对同一组长株潭综合II标树木岭隧道的沉降数据进行拟合，并分析实测和预测沉降的差异，并比较2种模型的适用性。研究结果表明：双曲线沉降的模拟需要大量的样本，可以作为隧道沉降评估的一种方法，但是仅对少数累积沉降递增的情况模拟精度高；灰色预测所需样本小，运算简便，而且模拟精度高，因此，灰色预测相比双曲线拟合法具有更高的精度和普适性。

英文摘要：

Based on assessment projects of deformation monitoring of Chang-Zhu-Tan intercity railway project, the law of development for tunnel settlement about Chang-Zhu-Tan intercity railway is investigated. According to measured data, we found that the settlement amount of the tunnel is generally small, Using the hyperbolic fitting and the gray prediction mod-el for the same set of settlement data of the comprehensive II standard team of Chang-Zhu-Tan, the differences between measured and predicted settlement are analysed, and the applicability of two models are compared. The results show that：The simulation of hyperbolic settlement requires a lot of samples, it can be used as a method to assess the tunnel settle-ment. However, the high simulation accuracy is only valid in the case of a small number of incremental cumulative settle-ment. Grey prediction desired sample is small, and has simple operation and high simulation accuracy. Comparing with the hyperbolic fitting, gray prediction has higher precision and universality.