中文摘要：

自我国汇率制度改革实施以来,人民币汇率的走势受到国内外的广泛关注,而同一时期的另一热点问题是国际石油价格的剧烈波动。从理论角度分析,这两个经济变量并不是相互独立的,国际石油价格对人民币汇率的影响主要是通过国际收支渠道和国内经济渠道,国际石油价格变动将引起人民币汇率反方向变动 而人民币汇率对国际石油价格的影响主要是通过国际石油贸易途径,但影响并不显著。运用ECM模型对人民币汇率和国际石油价格数据进行实证分析,得到两者之间的一个长期均衡关系,而通过因果关系检验,证明人民币汇率和国际石油价格之间存在的是单向因果关系,国际石油价格变动将引起人民币汇率的同方向变动,与理论分析结论相反 而人民币汇率对国际石油价格的影响不显著,与理论分析结论一致。

英文摘要：

After the reform of exchange rate regime, the tendency of RMB exchange rate attracts extensive atmy, they fluctuate in negative direction. RMB exchange rate influences international oil price through international oil trade, but the influence is not significant. Applying the ECM model to analyze the data of RMB ex- change rate and international oil price, we get a long - term equilibrium relation between them. Then, we prove that there is unidirectional causal relation between the two variables through causal relation test. The fluctuation of international oil price will cause the same direction fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, which is against the conclusion of theoretical analysis. And the influence of RMB exchange rate to international oil price is not significant, which is in keeping with the conclusion of theoretical analysis.