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中文摘要：
基于面板数据的SUR模型，估计了28个省1978—2005年的全要素生产率。发现除吉林和黑龙江两省外，全国26个省市自治区的全要素生产率变化存在着有区别的确定性趋势因素。另外，利用马尔可夫链分析了全要素生产率增长率的动态行为，研究发现全要素生产率增长率的长期演化中总体上存在回归趋同的态势。
英文摘要：
This paper, based on the seemingly unrelated regressive models of panel data, total factor productivity of 28 provinces was estimated during the period from 1978 to 2005. It was found that there were different determinate tendencies among total factor productivity of 26 provinces except Jilin and Heilongjiang. Besides, dynamic behaviors of the total factor productivity growth rate were also studied by Markov chain. The results showed that a regressive convergent tendency existed in long-term evolution of the total factor productivity growth rate.
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