中文摘要：

流域径流是鄱阳湖主要来水，建立鄱阳湖流域径流模型对揭示湖泊水量平衡及其受流域自然和人类活动的影响具有重要意义．针对鄱阳湖-流域系统的特点：流域面积大（16．22×10^4km^2）、多条人湖河流、湖滨区坡面人湖径流等，研究了相应的模拟方法，建立了考虑流域土壤属性和土地利用空间变化的鄱阳湖流域分布式径流模型．采用6个水文站1991—2001年的实测河道径流对模型进行了率定和验证．结果显示，模型整体模拟精度较高．其中，赣江、信江和饶河均取得了较好的模拟结果，月效率系数为0．82—0．95；抚河和修水模拟精度略低，为0．65—0．78．模型揭示了研究时段内年平均人湖径流总量为1623×10^8m^3，其中赣江最多，占47％，其次为信江和抚河，分别占13％和12％，湖滨区坡面入湖径流约占4％，其余24％来自饶河、修水以及其它入湖支流．模型将用于评估流域下垫面或气候变化引起的入湖水量变化，为湖泊水量平衡计算提供依据．

英文摘要：

Hydrological modelling of surface runoff for Lake Poyang watershed is of significant importance since the surface runoff is the main source of water inflows of the lake. The hydrological model can be used to reveal the influences of changes of natural and human conditions in the watershed on the surface runoff and consequently on the water balance of the lake. Hydrological modeling of the Lake Poyang watershed is challenging due to the complexities of the system, e.g. the large size （162.2 ×10^4 km^2） of the area with high heterogeneity of soil types and land uses, contribution of stream flow from multiple rivers to the lake, and the overland flow at lake-side zone. Relevant methods to simulate the above features were presented and a distributed hydrological model was developed in this paper for Lake Poyang watershed. The model was well calibrated and validated against the observed daily stream flows at six stations from 1991 to 2001. The results were satisfactory inthe general model predictions, with high monthly efficiencies of 0.82 - 0.95 for Ganjiang, Xinjiang and Raohe rivers. Accuracy of model prediction for Fuhe and Xiushui rivers was slightly lower, with efficiencies ranging from 0.65 to 0.78. The model indicated that the average volume of annual surface runoff to the lake for the simulation period was 162.3 billion m^3, of which Ganjiang, Xinjiang and Fuhe rivers contributed 47%, 13% and 12%, respectively. Direct overland flow to the lake at the lake-side zone accounted for about 4%. The rest （24%） was contributed via Raohe, Xiushui rivers and several tributaries. The model successfully simulated the hydrological processes of Lake Poyang watershed, and can be used to evaluate impacts of human activities on water variability and water balance of Lake Poyang.