中文摘要：

对影响城市轨道交通建设-移交（BT）项目回购总价款的风险因素进行系统性研究,在得到了关键风险分配矩阵后,对应BT主办方承担的关键风险因素,采用工程造价理论和工程经济学方法,构建了城市轨道交通BT项目回购基价调整模型,定性解决了BT项目回购基价调整的问题;对应BT承办方承担的关键风险因素,应用蒙特卡洛模拟的VaR模型方法,提出并建立了城市轨道交通BT项目投资回报率定量模型,定量解决了投资回报率确定的问题.研究结论使城市轨道BT项目定价理论更具有指导性,并为确定城市轨道交通BT项目回购价提供了一个新的研究思路.

英文摘要：

The risk factors influencing the total repurchase payment of the urban rail traffic build-transfer（BT） project were systematically analyzed.After a matrix for key risk allocation was established,with regard to the key risk fac-tors that BT host bears,the methods in engineering cost theory and engineering economic theory were adopted,and the adjustment model for repurchase basic price in urban rail traffic BT project was established,which resolved the issue of adjustment of repurchase basic price in BT project qualitatively;with regard to the key risk factors that BT contractor bears,the Monte Carlo simulation value at risk（VaR） model was used and the quantitative model was set up for return on investment（ROI） in urban rail traffic BT project,which resolved the issue of determination of ROI quantitatively.The conclusion that the research arrives at makes the pricing theory for urban rail traffic BT project more instructive and provides a new idea for studying the determination of the repurchase price of urban rail traffic BT project.