中文摘要：

气候变化对自然生态环境及社会经济活动的影响日益明显,但县域畜牧业对气候变化响应研究较少。文中以苏尼特右旗为例,应用灰色关联分析法,基于经营制度,划分1976-1983、1984-1990、1991-2002、2003-2008四个时序段,将年均降水量、年均气温、草场载畜量、肉畜产品收购价格指数等作为驱动因素,分别定量分析了各因素对畜牧业产值和牲畜结构的影响。结果显示,作为外部环境因素,气候始终影响和限制畜牧业的发展,而在市场经济引入牧区后,市场因素对该地区畜牧业发展起到了极大的引导和推动作用。从长期看,该旗降水减少、气温升高、干旱加剧以及各种极端气候事件频发都必将是牧区畜牧业发展的主要环境影响因素,牧区畜牧业要实现可持续发展,气候变化不容忽视。

英文摘要：

Climate change has brought significant impact on ecological environment in China.However,there is fewer research on response of husbandry to climate change in pastoral area.Taking Suniteyou Banner for example,it showed that climate has become warmer and dryer in last 40 years.Then based on operating system,the study period was divided into four different periods： 1976-1983,1984-1990,1991-2002,2003-2008,and then four indicators′effects on animal husbandry value and the livestock structure were analyzed with grey correlation analysis.These indicators are annual precipitation,annual temperature,the stocking capacity and price index of livestock meat respectively.The results show that as the external environmental factor,the climate has always influenced and even limited the development of animal husbandry in the pastoral areas and the market mechanism has played a significant role in guiding and promoting the development of animal husbandry after its introduction into the pastoral areas.In the long term,the climate of this area has been characterized by declined rainfall,higher temperature,intensified drought,and higher frequency of extreme weather events.All these will definitely be the main environmental factors affecting pastoral livestock development.It tells us that climate change must be paid more attention if animal husbandry triey to achieve sustainable development.