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北方草原牧民对极端干旱感知的季节敏感性研究

ISSN号：2095-4050
期刊名称：农学学报
时间：2012.10.20
页码：26-31
分类：S17[农业科学—农业基础科学]
作者机构：[1]中国农业科学院草原研究所,呼和浩特010010, [2]中国农业科学院研究生院,北京100081, [3]兰州大学草地农业科技学院,兰州730020
相关基金：国家自然科学基金项目“我国北方草原区气候变化适应性评价及其管理对策研究”（70933004）;国家自然科学基金项目“气候变化对农牧民家庭的影响及适应对策--基于半农半牧区的调查研究”（71103185）;公益性行业（农业）科研专项“牧区家庭牧场资源优化配置技术模式研究与示范”（201003019）：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金“草原干旱脆弱性与区域气候变化适应对策研究”（1610332012002）.
相关项目：气候变化对农牧民家庭的影响与适应对策：基于中国北方半农半牧区的调查研究

关键词：极端干旱感知, 气候变化适应, 北方草原, 家庭牧场, Extreme Drought Perception, Climate Change Adaptation, Northern Grassland, Household

中文摘要：

为深入探究气候变化背景下人类适应过程,基于＂感知-适应＂框架,利用人群感知与干旱时间序列之间关系,即Pa-PI相关的研究方法,以内蒙古典型地区为例,研究了北方草原牧民对极端干旱感知的季节敏感性。结果表明：牧民对极端干旱发生年份的感知强度随时间序列非均匀递增,且对干旱强度具正向的依赖性;牧民感知以夏旱敏感为主,其敏感度大于春、秋、冬、跨季节及全年干旱;而同一地区的敏感季在不同年代段具不稳定性,随时间变动;在年代之间,时间越近牧民对极端干旱的识别越敏感。比较年、季、月等尺度干旱发生对牧民感知结果的解释能力,发现月尺度比季及以上尺度的解释力下降,表明牧民对极端干旱的感知主要是根据季及以上时间尺度的判断。

英文摘要：

In order to explore the human adaptation process under climate change, based on the ＂perception-adaptation＂ framework, and the Pa-PI related method that was the relationship between herders＇ perception and drought in time series, the herders＇ perception to extreme drought was analyzed in the typical areas of Inner Mongolia. The results showed that herders＇ perception intensity about extreme drought occurrence rises with time series, and depends positively on the intensity of drought intensity. The results also showed that herders＇ pereeption to extreme drought was most sensitive to drought in summer, but relatively not sensitive in other three seasons, the whole yeas and inter-seasons. The sensitive seasons were different at the different periods in the same area. Herders had more sensitive perception to drought which occurred in recent years, and time was one key factor influencing herders＇ perception. The results also showed that herders＇ perception to extreme drought was mostly based on season, quarter and year scales but not month scale.

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