中文摘要：

为使贝叶斯网络能够对模糊信息和不确定信息进行处理,提出一种新的基于模糊贝叶斯网络的多态系统可靠性分析方法。该方法将模糊集合理论引入到贝叶斯网络可靠性分析中,考虑部件故障状态、部件故障率的模糊性以及部件间故障逻辑关系的不确定性,使贝叶斯网络具有处理模糊信息的能力。该方法采用模糊数描述系统和部件的故障状态,利用模糊子集描述部件的故障率,运用贝叶斯网络的条件概率表描述部件间的不确定联系。该方法应用到载重车液压悬架系统的可靠性分析实例中,分析结果表明该方法在进行系统可靠性分析时能够充分利用系统的模糊信息和不确定信息,从而提高系统可靠性分析的效率。

英文摘要：

In order to make the Bayesian networks dealing with fuzzy and uncertain information, a new reliability analysis method of multi-state system based on fuzzy Bayesian networks is proposed. The fuzzy set theory is presented to Bayesian networks, and considering both the fuzziness of fault state and fault rate and the uncertainty of fault logical relationship between components, therefore the Bayesian networks are capable of handing the fi.tzzy information. The fault states of system and components are described by fuzzy numbers, fault rates are denoted by fuzzy subsets, and the relationship between components described as conditional probability table of Bayesian networks. At last, the method is applied in the reliability analysis of the hydraulic suspension system of hydraulic transporter, the results show that the proposed method is able to make full use of fuzzy information and uncertain information in reliability analysis and can improve the efficiency of reliability analysis.