中文摘要：

为适时、有效地控制炼化过程系统风险,以模糊Petri网（FPN）为基础,针对炼化系统动态退化性和系统中保护层对风险转移的干预性,建立考虑保护层响应的炼化过程系统风险动态转移模型。描述基于FPN的保护层作用动态机制,分析炼化系统在保护层干预下,从非正常干扰触发开始至炼化系统退化过程的风险变化趋势。最后通过正己烷缓冲罐案例分析验证模型。结果表明：正己烷缓冲罐在开始运行的30 000 h内,系统风险等级呈阶段性变化,在工作的前16 800 h,风险为Ⅰ级;第16 800~27 600 h,风险为Ⅱ级;第27 600~30 000 h,风险为Ⅲ级。

英文摘要：

For the sake of controlling the systematic risk of refining process timely and effectively,based on FPN,a model considering response of protection layers was built for systematic risk dynamic transfer in refining system. The dynamic mechanism of protection layers based on FPN was described. The risk variation trend from the beginning of non-normal disturbance to degradation of refinery system under the intervention of protection layers was analyzed. A hexane buffer tank was taken as the research object. It was discovered that at the beginning of working time within 30 000 hours,the risk level of hexane buffer tank showed a phasic change,and in the first 16 800 hours of work,the risk was at gradeⅠ,during 16 800 thhour to27 600 thhour,the risk was at grade Ⅱ,and 27 600 thhour to 30 000 hour,the risk was at grade Ⅲ.