不同经济体的财政与经济增长作用关系存在差异性,研究文献对二者理论关系的认识也并不统一。本文采用小样本可靠的Bootstrap仿真方法,利用1952~2003年为样本期的时序数据,对我国政府支出与经济增长进行了Granger因果关系的实证检验。比较研究显示,基于渐近理论的传统检验结果认为,二者不存在统计上的协整关系。利用Bootstrap仿真方法却得到不同的结论,即政府支出与经济增长具有双向的Granger因果关系,意味着我国财政和经济增长存在相互促进作用。本文结论与大多数研究文献观点存在显著区别。
This paper investigates the fiscal expenditures and economic growm causality relationship in China via the bootstrap simulation technique accounting for the small sample size. The results show that there is no long-run stable level relationship between the expenditure and economic growth for the period 1952-2003. However, the causality testing results suggest that there exists a bidirectional causality between fiscal expenditure and economic growth, conclusions departing distinctively from those in the previous studies. Some explanations are presented for the results furthermore.