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通货膨胀期限与责任:短期或中长期? 可变或固定? 政府或央行?
  • ISSN号:1066-1029
  • 期刊名称:国际金融研究
  • 时间:2013.7.1
  • 页码:4-17
  • 分类:F831[经济管理—金融学]
  • 作者机构:[1]天津工业大学经济学院, [2]中国人民银行货币政策二司货币政策秘书处, [3]南开大学经济学院, [4]中国黄金专委会
  • 相关基金:中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“我国地方政府债务风险的量化估测方法及控制化解策略研究”(编号:NKZXYY1107); 国家自然科学基金青年项目“中国地方财政隐性赤字的规模估测、风险量化与动态监管研究”(编号:71203106)
  • 相关项目:中国地方财政隐性赤字的规模估测、风险量化与动态监管研究
中文摘要:

政府工作报告从2005年3月以来每年宣示的政府当年通货膨胀目标存在两个月通货膨胀脱锚期、通货膨胀目标期限较短、通货膨胀目标经常调整等问题。期限过短的通货膨胀目标承诺区间非中央银行货币政策所能控制,也加剧了当年货币政策调控的难度,一定程度上还损害了政府信任度。频繁的通货膨胀目标调整与货币政策保持物价稳定的基本任务相违背,也扰乱了消费投资决策。通货膨胀控制信任度丧失使得我国现行的通货膨胀目标制对通货膨胀锚定和通货膨胀预期管理的作用不大,通货膨胀脱锚导致控制通货膨胀的成本较高。为此,建议新一届政府确立跨周期的固定不变的中期或者长期通货膨胀目标。

英文摘要:

The inflation target that the government has announced since March 2005 has been found with three problems: two months de-anchored period, short-horizon inflation targets and frequently adjusted inflation goals. It was well- known that the monetary policy could not control short-term inflation target, which added to the difficulty faced by the central bank and impaired the government's credit. The yearly inflation target adjustment not only runs counter to the monetary policy's goal of price stabilization, but also disturbs decisions on consumption and investment. The impairment of reputation in controlling inflation has bad consequences. Firstly, the inflation anchor has less influence on inflation and inflation expectation; secondly, the cost of inflation control is increased. We suggest that the new central government should authorize the people's bank of China to publish fixed inflation target ( 3% ) , and the period of responsibility should be defined as cross-business cycles.

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