中文摘要：

基于MODIS-NDVI数据,提取新疆2005-2015年植被覆盖度（FVC）。通过依据海拔和植被覆盖度的指标划分出山地、绿洲、平原、荒漠等11个子系统。通过斜率、变异系数、线性回归模型等方法来对全疆和不同生态分区的现状和未来发展趋势进行分析,并用BP人工神经网络来预测新疆2016-2020年的植被覆盖度的时空变化和分析2005-2020年时空动态变化趋势。主要结论为：1新疆植被覆盖度总体为上升趋势,从西北向东南逐渐下降;山地呈逐年上升趋势,荒漠呈不显著退化趋势。植被覆盖度的变化主要是由降水量的变化引起;2在整个新疆的荒漠和绿洲边缘构成了一个＂绿洲—荒漠改善过渡带＂,绿洲呈明显的改善趋势;3 2009年是研究期内多数分区植被覆盖度的历史最低点;4在山脉的冰川积雪、湖泊周围的变异性很大,范围在150%-316%之间,这主要是由于气候变化、冰川消融和湖泊水位的波动变化所致;5北疆生态明显好于东疆与南疆,其绿洲区域呈现明显的改善趋势。伊犁地区的植被覆盖度相比于其他3个分区的变幅很大,山地区域呈明显的逐年退化趋势。伊犁地区植被覆盖度的局部最低点是在2008年,比其他分区的2009年提前了一年,相应的存在＂实时＂（伊犁）和＂滞后＂（东疆、南疆和北疆）的效应,主要是由于降水量和气温的变化所致。

英文摘要：

This paper presents spatial and temporal dynamics of fraction of vegetation in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. Fractional vegetation cover（FVC） was estimated by using MODIS-NDVI data from 2005 to 2015. The study area was divided into 11 ecological and climate regions according to the altitude and land cover. Slope, variability and linear regression model were used to analyze the present situation and future tendency for FVC in Xinjiang and its sub-regions. The BP-ANN neural network analysis was used to predict FVC from 2016 to 2020, and the FVC trend over the entire study area during 2005- 2020 was discussed. The results showed that： From 2005 to 2015, FVC increased in general over time,and spatially, decreased from northwest to southeast; In mountain areas, FVC increased in general; desert system showed no significant change, and multi- average FVC was about 0.10.The dynamic change of FVC was mainly caused by precipitation. We observed an improvement of vegetation cover over oasis and desert ecotone. FVC showed a significant increase over oasis. The year 2009 was the turning point with a historical low value. The variation near areas covered by ice and snow, river and lakes was remarkable, showing a change rate of 150%- 316%. This change was probably responded by glacial depletion and fluctuation changes of lakes due to global climate change. The ecosystem in northern Xinjiang is obviously better than that in southern and eastern Xinjiang. In terms of oasis, the northern part is improved remarkably（P = 0.001）. There was an obvious FVC fluctuation in Yili region compared to other regions. The mountain area showed an obvious degeneration tendency. The local minima point of FVC was observed in Yili in 2008, while it was in the other three regions in 2009. The lag of local minima occurring in the northern and southern parts of the study areas may have been caused by precipitation and temperature variation across the study area.Predicted average FVC from 2016- 2020 demonstrated trends and pattern