人口红利期是新兴经济体"经济崛起"的机会窗口。根据中国人口政策的特点,基于中国30个省市自治区的面板数据建立的一种讨论中国人口红利问题的面板数据平滑转移回归模型分析表明,中国的人口红利在21世纪初从经济和文化最发达的地区开始出现,东部沿海地区的人口红利目前才初现端倪,而中西部地区的人口红利尚未显现。
Demographic dividend is an opportunity window of economic rise in emerging economies, according to the characteristics of China's demographic policies, this paper establishes panel smooth transition regression model discussed China's demographic dividend. In the empirical analysis, they are found that Chings demographic dividend peeped in the early 21st century the most developed regions , the demographic dividend is currently about to appear in the eastern coastal areas, while the demographic dividend has not yet appeared in all area of the central and western regions.