中文摘要：

仿射动态期限结构模型的估计方法中存在着小样本偏差问题,估计出来的结果可能因小样本偏差而产生偏误。较严重的偏误导致了未来短期利率预期和长期期限溢价与实证研究不符。文章考察了我国银行间债券期限结构模型估计,结果显示,系数估计中存在显著的小样本偏差,然后利用Bootstrap模拟的偏差修正方法进行了修正,重新解释了我国远期利率及远期溢价的一些重要特征。

英文摘要：

The estimation method of affine dynamic term structure model （DTSM） may have the problem of small sample bias. The result of estimation may cause errors due to the small sample bias. Serious errors lead to short-term interest rates expected and long term premium is inconsistent with the empirical research. This article investigates the DTSM estimation of China＇ s interbank bond, and the results show that significant deviation exists in the coefficient estimation. After that bootstrap simulation method is used to correct the small sample deviation and reexplain some important properties of forward rate and term premium in China finally.