中文摘要：

在传统的滑坡危险性区划研究中，评价因素的选取及其权重取值存在主观和随意性。该文选择三峡库区巫山县城作为研究区，引入在矿产资源评价预测中广泛应用的证据权法，以贝叶斯条件概率为基础，研究评价滑坡的控制因素（地层、岩性、构造、高程、坡度和坡向等）和诱发因素（人类工程活动、道路和水系等），利用ArcGIS计算并叠加各因素的证据权重，得到滑坡危险性区划图。经分离样本法验证，危险性区划准确率为81％（其中65％分布在极高和高危险区，16％分布在中危险区），表明证据权法可用于评价因素的选取及其权重取值研究。

英文摘要：

In the traditional study of landslide hazard zonation, there are subjectivity and arbitrariness at aspect of selection of evaluation factors and weight values. The weights of evidence method which is widely used in the evaluation and prediction of mineral resources was used in this paper. Wushan County in the Three Gorges reservoir area was chose as the study area, the landslide controlling factors （combination of lithology,geological structure, geographical elevation, slope and aspect） and predisposing factors （human engineering activities, roads and water effect-distances） were chose as the data source. In this paper, ArcGIS platform weights of evidence extension module （WofE Extension） was used to calculate the weights of evidence of various factors,zone landslide hazard and obtain the landslide hazard zoning map of the study area. The result showed that 81G of the landslide was accurate, and 65 % of the landslide distributed at very high and high-risk areas, 16 % of the landslide distributed at medium-risk area. It shows that the weights of evidence method could be objectively and quantitatively evaluated the impact degree of factors relevant with landslide,as a basis of the choice of factors for landslide hazard zonation.