中文摘要：

针对边坡位移时间序列,采用多项式拟合的方法对边坡上的监测点进行变形分析和预报。详细叙述了多项式拟合的方法,并据此构建了边坡的多项式预报模型。结合小湾水电站2号山梁高边坡监测点的全球定位系统（GPS）实测数据,对监测点的＂位移-时间＂拟合曲线进行分析,验证了边坡多项式预报模型的正确性。

英文摘要：

According to the displacement time series of the slope,the polynomial fitting method is adopted to analyze and predict the deformation of the monitoring points of the slope.The polynomial fitting method is elaborated,and then a polynomial prediction model is established.Combining with the observed GPS data of No.2 ridge high slope in Xiaowan Hydropower Station,the time-displacement fitting curve of monitoring points is analyzed.The accuracy of the proposed model is validated.