中文摘要：

为模拟燃油税费改革对国民经济与交通运输业的影响，以运输卫星账户为数据框架基础，构建了燃油-交通运输-经济的TSA-CGE模型。通过产品生产、价格传导、运输与燃油、收入与支出、贸易、社会福利、社会投资和总均衡模块，对燃油-交通运输-经济系统进行全面描述。设置燃油消费税率从5％上升到20％的燃油税费方案，模拟燃油税费方案对宏观经济与交通运输的影响。模拟结果表明：燃油税方案会促进投资、居民收入、政府储蓄的增长，但会对经济总量增长及进出口带来负面影响；燃油税费方案会带来铁路运输、城市交通总产出的增加，而导致其他方式运输产出的下降，各运输方式总体产出价格呈现上涨趋势；方案能促进国内成品油需求量的降低，提高油品利用效率。

英文摘要：

In order transportation indu to simulate the influences of fuel oil stry, the fuel-transportation-economy tax reform on national economy and TSA-CGE model was built based on fuel, income and expense, trade, public welfare, social investment, and general equilibrium. A fuel oil tax program was set, which fuel consumption tax rate rised from 5% to 20%, and the influences of the program on macro-economy and transportation were simulated. Simulation result shows that fuel oil tax program can promote the developments of investment, residents＇ incomes, government savings, but have negative impact on economic aggregate growth, import and export. The program can cause the increases of rail transport, total urban traffic output, lead to the declines of other transport outputs, and the overall output prices of transport modes show a rising trend. The program can promote the decrease of domestic oil product demand, and improve the use efficiency of oil. 5 tabs, 13 refs.