中文摘要：

从 ENSEMBLES (气候变化和他们的影响的基于整体的预言)和得墨特尔基于最先进的联合海洋空气将军发行量模型( CGCM )的评估(一个欧洲 Multimodel 整体系统为的开发对 Interannual 季节预言)工程，自从1970年代末，华南海夏天季风( SCSSM )的预言改善了，这被发现。这些 CGCM 在 1960-1978 期间比那在 1979-2005 期间在 SCSSM 领域以内在大气的发行量和降水的预言显示出更好的技巧。为这改进的可能的原因被调查。首先，在在热带太平洋，向北和平、热带的印度洋，和 SCSSM 上的 SST 之间的关系后来加强了 1970 年代末。同时，与他们 interannual 可变性的更大的振幅， SCSSM 相关的 SST 更好被预言了。而且，为在 1970 年代末以后的 CGCM 的 SCSSM 和改进初始化的 interannual 可变性的更大的振幅贡献 SCSSM 的更好的预言。另外，认为 CGCM 在 SCSSM 降雨预言有某些限制，我们从得墨特尔和整体工程把 year-to-year 增长途径用于这些 CGCM 在 1970 年代末前后改进 SCSSM 降雨的预言。

英文摘要：

Based on the evaluation of state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models （CGCMs） from the ENSEMBLES （Ensemble-based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts） and DEME- TER （Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction） projects, it is found that the prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSSM） has improved since the late 1970s. These CGCMs show better skills in prediction of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation within the SCSSM domain during 1979-2005 than that during 1960-1978. Possible reasons for this improvement are investigated. First, the relationship between the SSTs over the tropical Pacific, North Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean, and SCSSM has intensified since the late 1970s. Meanwhile, the SCSSM-related SSTs, with their larger amplitude of interannual variability, have been better predicted. Moreover, the larger amplitude of the interannual variability of the SCSSM and improved initializations for CGCMs after the late 1970s contribute to the better prediction of the SCSSM. In addition, considering that the CGCMs have certain limitations in SCSSM rainfall prediction, we applied the year-to-year increment approach to these CGCMs from the DEMETER and ENSEMBLES projects to improve the prediction of SCSSM rainfall before and after the late 1970s.