中文摘要：

关于南方亚洲人夏天季风(SASM ) 的季节的预报技巧在欧洲委员会 FP7 工程(整体) 和一个欧洲 Multimodel 整体系统的发展之间被比较为对 Interannual 预言工程(得墨特尔) 季节。Webster-Yang 索引(WYI ) 被选择代表 SASM 的紧张。首先，作者比较了能力在 850 hPa (U850 ) 和在整体和得墨特尔模型之间的 200 hPa (U200 ) 预报带的风。结果显示从中等范围的天气预报，国际组织( ECMWF )和英国的欧洲中心的模型在整体遇见了办公室( UKMO )在季节地预报 JJA (6月，7月，和8月)拥有更大的技巧 U850 ， U200 ，并且减 U200 的 U850 比在里面得墨特尔。比作在减预报的 U200 的得墨特尔， JJA U200 和 U850，技巧为从 M 的模型是更大的 ???? 剔吗？？

英文摘要：

The seasonal forecasting skill with respect to the South Asian summer monsoon（SASM） was compared between the European Commission FP7 project（ENSEMBLES） and the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction project（DEMETER）. The Webster-Yang index（WYI） was chosen to represent the intensity of the SASM. First, the authors compared the ability to forecast the zonal wind at 850 h Pa（U850） and 200 h Pa（U200） between ENSEMBLES and DEMETER models. The results indicated that the models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, International Organization（ECMWF） and UK Met Office（UKMO） in ENSEMBLES possess greater skill in seasonally forecasting the JJA（June, July, and August） U850, U200, and U850 minus U200 than in DEMETER. Compared to in DEMETER, the JJA U200 and U850 minus U200 forecasting skill was greater for the model from MétéoFrance（MF） in ENSEMBLES over most of the SASM region. The three coupled models（ECMWF, MF, and UKMO）, especially the UKMO model in ENSEMBLES, all demonstrated improved skill in their seasonal forecasts compared to in DEMETER with respect to the interannual variability of the SASM. The three ENSEMBLES models also showed better ability in forecasting the sea surface temperature anomalies（SSTAs） over the eastern equatorial Pacific and North Indian Ocean, and more accurately reproduced the large-scale atmospheric circulation and precipitation over northern India, which are related to the SASM. It seems that the couple between the atmospheric system and external forcing of ENSMBLES over Indian Ocean and Pacific is better than that of DEMETER.