中文摘要：

针对中国农业发展的方向，综合运用层次分析法和灰色预测法，分别构建层次分析、灰色预测、灰色关联度等模型，运用Matlab7编程，对影响未来农业发展的四个主要因素影响大小进行排序，预测未来三年全国主要粮食作物的产量，最终从农业的机械化、特色化和信息化三个方面对未来农业发展给出预测。

英文摘要：

According to the trend of chinese agricultural development, and by using AHP and gray prediction method, analytic hierarchy model, gray prediction model, and gray correlation degree model were established.Using Matlab7 programming, we sor-ted the affecting size of the impact of future agricultural development in four main factors , and predicted the nation′s major food crop production in the next three years.Ultimately, future agricultural development proposals were given from three aspects which are mechanization, specialization and informatization.