中文摘要：

基于新疆农户家庭微观调研数据，选用倾向得分匹配法，构建农村民间贷款方放贷行为的平均处理效应（ATE）、处理组的平均处理效应（ATT）以及控制组的平均处理效应（ATU）模型，估计农村民间贷款方的放贷行为对新疆农户家庭纯收入、家庭生活消费支出及家庭生产经营投资的影响效应，并通过平衡性检验及稳健性检验验证了估计结果的可靠性。研究结果表明：所有样本农户的家庭纯收入、家庭生活消费支出及家庭生产经营投资均不同程度受到了农村民间贷款方放贷行为的影响，其中，农村民间贷款方的放贷行为在1%水平上显著促使农户家庭生活消费支出平均增加0.329万元，在5%水平上显著使得农户家庭纯收入和家庭生产经营投资分别平均减少1.454万元、0.126万元，说明农村民间贷款方的放贷行为促进了农户家庭生活消费，同时又抑制了农村家庭纯收入及家庭生产经营投资行为，最后根据实证研究结论提出了提升新疆农村民间借贷对农户家庭正向驱动效应的政策启示。

英文摘要：

Using the micro survey data of farmers’family in Xinjiang and based on the propensity score matching method,this paper separately estimates the effect of rural folk lenders’lending behavior on by using the ATE model,ATT model and ATU model.And then we verify the reliability of the estimation results by means of the balanced test and robustness test.The empirical research result shows that the household net income,household consumption expenditure and household production and business investment of all the samples are affected in different degrees by the lending behavior of rural folk lenders.Among them,the lending behavior of rural folk lenders significantly promotes household consumption expenditure increased by an average of0.329Million yuan at the1%level,significantly makes household net income and household production and business investment respectively decreased by an average of1.454million yuan,0.126million yuan at the5%level,which the lending behavior of rural folk lenders has promoted rural household consumption expenditure.At the same time,it also inhibited the pure income of rural households and the investment behavior of rural households production and operation.Finally,according to the empirical research conclusions,this study proposes the policy implications of promoting the positive effect of rural informal lending in rural households in Xinjiang.