为深入了解经济快速发展过程中,如何通过合理组织土地利用发展低碳经济,论文采用对数均值指数分解法(LMDI)分析了2002—2008年间经济增长的规模效应、结构效应和技术效应对土地利用碳排放的贡献.结果表明:(1)规模效应中的土地产出效应是土地利用碳排放增加的首要贡献因素(165.15%);(2)结构效应中的产业结构效应对抑制碳排放增加贡献了5.45%;(3)代表技术效应的能源强度效应是抑制碳排放增加的主要贡献因素,贡献率达到-61.52%.研究结论认为合理组织建设用地的产业布局成为减缓碳排放的可行手段,并在土地管理过程中,通过引入“低碳化”土地利用理念,巩固并加强有成效的节能减排措施.
In order to better understand how to develop low carbon economy by organizing land use rationally,thispaper applied Log Mean Divisia Index Method and analyzed the contribution of economic development,includingits scale effect,composition(structure)effect and technology effect,to the carbon emission of land use between2002 and 2008. Results indicated that(1)for the scale effect,GDP per unit of land contributed the most to the in鄄crease of carbon emission,and the contribution rate reached 165. 15%;(2)for the composition effect,industrialstructure contributed 5. 45% to reducing carbon emission;(3)for technology effect,energy use per unit of GDPwas the most important factor in reducing carbon emission,with the contribution rate reaching-61. 52%. It wasconcluded that it忆s feasible to slow down carbon emission by rationally planning construction land use among dif-ferent industries and it is necessary to introduce “low carbon”idea in land management and strengthen the appli-cation of effective energy-saving and carbon emission reducing measures.