2008年金融危机后,我国M2/GDP的大幅增加并未引发物价水平的持续上升,存在着“货币迷失”现象。本文认为,货币流通速度下降、供给过剩带来的竞争压力和输入型紧缩等是导致“货币迷失”现象的重要原因。由于房地产资产泡沫等原因使得资金无法流入实体经济,导致货币政策传导机制扭曲是货币流通速度下降的重要推手。从全球来看,日本、美国等在实施货币宽松尤其是量化宽松政策后也出现了类似的现象,“货币迷失”并不是中国孤例。本文研究表明,现实经济发展要求货币政策进行理论创新,当前货币政策的实施不能只关注总量调控,更需要理顺货币政策传导机制,合理搭配税收、国企改革、金融监管等其他政策。
Since the financial crisis in 2008, the substantial increase of M2/GDP ratio in China didn' t cause the continu- ous rise in price level. There exists a "money maze" phenomenon. This paper points out that the slow-down of monetary velocity, competitive pressure brought by excess supply and tightening import are main reasons that cause "money maze" phenomenon. Reasons including asset bubbles in real estate impede the inflows of funds into real economy. As a result, the distortion of monetary policy transmission mechanism is an important reason that leads to the slow-down of monetary velocity. From global view, similar circumstances occur in Japan, America and some other countries after they applied monetary easing policy, especially the quantitative easing policy, so "money maze" is not a unique case of China. This paper's research shows that real economic development requires theoretical innovation of monetary policy. The application of current monetary policy cannot only focus on the total quantity control, but should also straighten out the monetary policy transmission mechanism, reasonably allocate it with tax, stated-owned enterprise reform, financial regulation and other policies.