中文摘要：

使用中国与40个主要贸易伙伴国的贸易流量数据，采用引力模型对这些数据进行出口潜力测算，研究结果表明，中国在贸易方面表现出过度的特征，但是对于日本、俄罗斯等7个国家（地区）则表现出明显的贸易不足。与此同时，在出口潜力结构分析的研究中，与美国对比，我们发现，中国对于其他国家或地区出口相对不足的主要原因是贸易伙伴国的经济规模总量，贸易安排以及地理因素则是相对次要的，其次是人均收入的影响因素，贸易依存度在一定程度上也存在影响。

英文摘要：

Based on the gravity model, this article investigated trade flow data between China and 40 major trading partners, and calculated Chinese service export potential. The results showed that China has a Excessive trade in the trade. However, for Japan, Russia and other 7 countries （regions）, there is a lack of trade phenomenon showed. At the same time, in the analysis of potential export, compared with the United States, we found that the main reason is the economy scale of trade partners in the relative shortage of export between China and other countries or regions, trade arrangements , geographical factors are relatively minor factors. In addition, trade dependence also showed an influence to some extent.