2015年以来,我国的民间投资呈现快速回落态势,传统的政府管理服务不足、市场进入壁垒较高、融资难融资贵等原因难以对此进行合理解释。本文认为,国内外需求下滑,产能过剩问题凸显,资产泡沫尤其是房地产泡沫抬头,民间资本"脱实入虚"愈演愈烈,政策不确定性加大,企业综合负担较重,带来企业家信心不足,加之全球再工业化浪潮冲击,是导致2015年以来民间投资加快下降的重要原因。本文研究表明,要实现民间投资的回暖,我们需要在现有政策和方法基础上,保持宏观经济政策的稳定性,加强预期管理,抑制资产尤其是房地产泡沫,拓展外部需求,加强PPP市场建设,化解过剩产能,降低企业综合负担,并积极应对全球再工业化浪潮。
Since 2015, China's private investment has shown a rapid decline trend, and the shortage of traditional government management services, high market barriers to entry, the difficulties of financing and other reasons are difficult to explain this phenomenon. This paper argues that, accelerated decline in domestic demand, the problem of excess production capacity, asset bubble especially real estate bubble, private capital flowing from real economy to virtual economy, increased uncertainty, lack of confidence are the important reasons. This study shows that, in order to improve private investment again, based on the existing policies and methods, we also need to maintain the stability of macroeconomic policy, strengthen expectation management, restrain asset bubble especially real estate bubble, expand external demand, promote the PPP market construction and actively respond to the global re-industrialization wave.