中文摘要：

从社会、经济、环境、资源4个子系统中选取23个指标对库区土地承载力进行评价。研究以三峡库区2002年、2005年、2008年、2011年、2014年的LandsatTM影像作为数据源，运用熵权TOPSIS和灰色模型对库区土地承载力、土地社会、土地经济、土地环境及土地资源子系统承载力进行评价与预测。结果表明：三峡库区在2002-2014年的土地承载力总体上呈现增加趋势，土地承载力分别为0．167、0．152、0．352、0．473、0．899，以三年为步长，预测到2014-2026年库区土地承载力分别为0．171、0．272、0．424、O．653、0．979，表明土地承载力将进一步提高。研究结果为三峡库区土地资源可持续利用及相关土地利用规划提供了理论支撑。

英文摘要：

This paper selected from the society, economy, environment and resource of the 4 subsystems in evaluation of 23 indexes of the land carrying capacity. Study on Landsat TM remote sensing images in the 2002 Gorges Reservoir Area, 2005,2008,2011,2014 as the data source, using Entropy - weight TOPSIS and Grey model for evaluation and prediction of the land carrying capacity and society, economy, environment and resource subsystem carrying capacity. The results showed that：The Three Gorges Reservoir Area in 2002 - 2014 the land carrying capacity tended to increase, the land carrying capacity were 0.167, 0. 152,0. 352,0.473,0. 899 respectively. Take three years as the step size, forecasting in 2014- 2026 years the land carrying capacity were 0.171,0.272, O. 424,0. 653,0. 979 respectively, that would further improve the land carrying capacity. The results could provide theoretical support for the sustainable use of land resources of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, and to provide theoretical support for the development of land use planning.