已有研究主要基于性别比失衡的竞争性储蓄动机解释了中国家庭的高储蓄之谜。文章把子女结婚这一自然事件作为处理变量,通过婚前和婚后的家庭储蓄变化识别出"婚姻效应",为竞争性储蓄动机理论和中国家庭的高储蓄之谜提供了微观证据。研究结果发现,在控制个人以及家庭特征后,相对于已婚家庭,未婚家庭储蓄显著更高。在排除地区性差异、教育储蓄动机、预防性储蓄动机和样本匹配等问题之后,未婚比已婚家庭具有更高储蓄水平的结论依然稳健。文章进一步分析识别出了城市和农村异质"婚姻效应"和婚后消费结构的变化,发现"婚姻效应"对不同收入水平的家庭都产生了影响,但"婚姻效应"对低收入家庭的消费抑制更为明显。文章的研究结果丰富了婚姻市场的竞争性储蓄动机理论。
Previous research explains the puzzle of high savings rate in China mainly based on competitive savings motive with sex ration imbalance. This paper considers the natural event of children marriage as a treatment variable, identifies the "marriage effect" by comparing differences in savings between families with married son and families with unmarried son, and provides competitive savings motive theory and the puzzle of high sav- ings rates in Chinese families with micro basic evidence. The empirical results show that after controlling individual and family characteristics, savings rates of families with un- married son are significantly higher compared with families with married son. After consid- ering problems of regional differences, educational savings motive, precautionary savings motive and sample selection, the result that savings rates of families with unmarried son are significantly higher compared with families with married son still remain robust. Fur- ther studies identify rural-urban heterogeneous marriage effect and changes in consumption structure of families with married son. It finds that the marriage effect has influences on savings rates of families with different income levels, and is a more primary factor sup- pressing consumption in low-income families. Results revealed in this paper enrich the competitive savings motive theory in marriage market.