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中文摘要：
基于山东省1973—2013年的气候数据,利用线性倾向估计、普通克里金插值等方法分析了气温、降水量和风速的时空变化情况。结果表明：山东省气温、降水和风速分别呈上升、减少和下降变化特点。根据三种气候要素变化特征,可把它们分成三个阶段：1973—1985年为第一阶段,1986—2002年为第二阶段,2003—2013年为第三阶段。研究时段山东省气候变化的三阶段分别对应于拉马德雷冷暖位相,并可以通过冷位相、暖位相解释气候要素的变化。通过太阳黑子相对数量变化可以预测一年中不同季节可能的降水量,这对提高降水预测的时间精度、科学合理地利用与保护水资源具有重要作用。
英文摘要：
Based on the climate data of 15 meteorological offices and stations in Shandong Province during the period of 1973-2013 and by using the methods of linear tendency estimate and ordinary Kriglng interpolation, it analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of temperature, precipitation and wind speed and the relationship between variations in temperature, precipitation and El Nino/La Nina, numbers of sunspots. The results show that the temperature, precipitation and wind speed experience increasing, decreasing and declining changes respectively. According to the variations in three elements of climate, the changing climatic history from 1973 to 2013 of Shandong Province can be divided into three stages： the first stage started in 1973 and ended in 1985; the second stage lasted from 1986 to 2002, and the last ten years （2003-2013） is the third stage. The three stages of Shandong climatic change match the warm and cold periods of La Madre well and can be interpreted through La Madre theory. Furthermore, Using the variation in relative amount of sunspot, the seasonal amount of precipitation can be predicted, which will benefit the accuracy of precipitation predicting, promote rational exploiting and protect the water resources.
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