本文通过相关性、平稳性、Granger因果、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等检验和分析比较汇改前后GDP、M2和NEER对CPI的影响。以2005年7月汇改制度为界限,比较汇改前后上述指标对CPI影响的变化,得出汇改制度调整后有利于缓解国内通货膨胀的局面,具有积极意义,并给出在合理浮动范围内增强人民币汇率浮动弹性的建设性建议。
By correlation, smooth, Granger causality, impulse response function and variance decomposition impact testing and analysis and comparison of before and after the reform GDP, M2 and NEER on CPI. In July 2005 exchange rate reform system as the boundary, the index change on the CPI compared before and after the impact of the reform, the reform system come after adjustment will help ease domestic inflation situation, it has a positive meaning, and gives a reasonable range of floating RMB exchange rate floating within the enhanced flexibility and constructive suggestions.