中文摘要：

为确保第29届北京奥运会青岛帆船比赛顺利进行，针对奥帆基地波浪断面模型试验结果，引入多维联合概率分析理论，并应用随机模拟技术，进行结构浮托力和越浪量计算，进而给出可靠度及风险分析结果，新方法考虑到多种极端海洋环境条件对结构物的综合作用，给模型试验赋予了联合概率特征，结果更加科学合理。

英文摘要：

According to hydraulic structure model test results of the XXIX Olympiad sailing games, considering the probability characteristic of physical modeling and joint probability of different extreme sea combinations, the stochastic simulation technique is applied to the analysis of sea environmental conditions and their corresponding output. Different return levels of sea environmental combinations are calculated to realize the joint probability characteristic of the model test results.