中文摘要：

为探究我国渤海沿岸地区经济发展与海洋环境污染的相关性,以渤海沿岸13个城市为调查区域,以1990至2014年的经济指标和入海排污量统计数据为基础,利用环境库兹涅茨曲线模型分析了经济增长与工业废水入海量、城镇污水入海量以及废水入海总量的关系。研究结果表明：统计年度中渤海沿岸地区人均GDP与工业废水入海量之间的关系尚不明确,但与城镇污水入海量和废水入海总量均为正U型关系,说明该地区经济增长对海洋环境污染具有直接推动作用。为判断未来的发展趋势,本文对2015—2020年的增长状况进行了预测,在与历史数据集成后进行分析,发现人均GDP与工业废水入海量转变为倒N型曲线关系,与城镇污水入海量和废水入海总量之间转变为倒U型关系,其转折点发生在2017年前后,说明近年来渤海沿岸地区经济增长与入海排污量的关系已开始发生逆转,如得以继续坚持,可望步入良性互动阶段。

英文摘要：

To explore the mutual relations between economic development and pollution of the marine environment of Bohai-Zone,this paper collected the statistical data of economical indexes and the quantity of sewage into the sea of 13 cities around Bohai Sea.Through establishing the model of Environmental Kuznets Curve,we found the relationship between economic growth and industrial wastewater into the sea,urban sewage into the sea and the total amount of wastewater into the sea.The results show that the relationship between GDP per capita and industrial wastewater into the sea is irrespective from 1990 to 2013.And the curve of urban sewage and the total amount of wastewater into the sea in relation to GDP per capita is taking the shape of U.This shows that the contradiction between population growth and environmental protection is more outstanding.To judge the future development trend,this paper carried on the forecast to the data of 2014-2020.After the analysis and synthesis of historical data,we found the curve of industrial wastewater into the sea in relation to GDP per capita is taking the shape of inverted N,and the curve of urban sewage and the total amount of wastewater into the sea in relation to GDP per capita is taking the shape of inverted U.The turning point occurred at around 2016-2017.This shows that the implementation of various measures of environmental protection in recent years is more appropriate.As to continue to insist,promote economic development and environmental protection of Bohai-Zone will enter a phase of positive interaction.