中文摘要：

沿海经济区空间演变与其产业经济的可持续发展紧密相关,探索用地演变的驱动机制,对区域未来发展具有重要意义。以临港产业高度集聚发展的典型沿海经济区——大连市新市区为例,基于TM遥感影像和DEM空间数据,通过随机选取2000个采样点,构建了描述用地空间演变过程的Logistic回归模型,分析了沿海经济区土地利用变化过程的空间变量,重点研究驱动因素构成,各因素参与程度、影响效果和作用,各时段因素间的关联性及传导性等内容。研究发现,在1990-2010年的20a间,大连市新市区建设用地面积增加了近30倍,其空间驱动变量除了包含与城市CBD、邻近区县、乡镇中心的距离外,还与到主要港区、沿海岸线、邻近临港工业区距离等因素密切相关,这一系列城镇空间分布与港口相关变量构成了用地空间演变的驱动因素体系,共同塑造了沿海经济区的空间格局。文章所建空间模型通过Logistic回归检验,能够较好地揭示沿海经济区空间演变的主要驱动因素及其作用机理,为相关研究提供了新的思路和方法。

英文摘要：

The spatial land use changes of coastal economic zone are closely associated with the future sustainable development of the regional industries. The research chose Dalian new urban as study area due to its typical characters of coastal economic zone with highly accumulated port industries. Using TM remote sensing images and DEM spatial data over a two-decade period, the logistic regression models on the construction land changes were built with 2 000 random samples. The models were aimed to analyze the spatial variables embodied in the evolution process with focus on the composition of driving factors and involvement levels, effects and impacts of each remarkable factor. In order to reflect the spatial change mechanism comprehensively, not only natural but also social-economic, especially industrial factors were all imported into the independent variable index in the models. By extracting urban spatial changes, it was found that the construction land in Dalian new urban has expanded by nearly 30 times in 20 years. To explain such huge land changes, the regression results show that the significant variables in coastal economic zone not only contain the distance to CBD, to nearest district, villages and towns, as the finding in similar urban sprawl regressions, but also include the distance to nearest main ports, coastal lines and port industry zones with strong specific coastal attributes. The variables both on urban spatial distribution and on coastal related conditions are thus confirmed as driving factors of land use spatial changes in this coastal economic zone. The driving factors are all playing critical roles in shaping urban patterns jointly. Through the comparison between the regression models in the period of 1990-2000 and 2000-2010, it can as well known the categories and impacts of the proposed explanatory variables in different stages varied. In the first period, as a newly developing stage, the urban spatial growth was mainly promoted by inward space filling with the distance to district, villages an