中文摘要：

通过理论分析和仿真的方法,探析网络舆情中个体网民的＂沉默＂现象对整个网络舆情演化的影响。基于元胞自动机原理,提出网民在舆情演化中的沉默与发声规则,构建包含网民沉默因素的元胞自动机舆情演化模型,重点仿真研究了网民不同观点的比例和沉默阈值对舆情的影响。研究发现,部分网民的沉默会导致观测到的舆情扭曲实际的舆情：初始占据优势地位的观点在演化中优势被夸大,而处于劣势观点的网民大量保持沉默;个体网民沉默阈值越大,最终沉默的网民比例越小。

英文摘要：

Based on the theoretical analysis and simulation method,this paper explores the effects of netizen＇s silence factor on the evolution of internet public opinion. On the basis of cellular automata principle,the paper proposes the silence and sounding principles of netizens in public opinion evolution. The paper constructs the public opinion evolution model of cellular automata based on the netizens＇ silence factors,and focuses on the simulation research on the effects of different opinions＇ proportions and different silence thresholds of netizens on public opinion. The research result shows that some netizens＇ silence will lead to a difference between the observed public opinion and the actual public opinion. The initial strong opinion seems much more melodramatic than the real situation while many netizens keep silent when they are in the weak side. The greater the individual＇s silence threshold is the smaller percentage silent netizens will be.