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中文摘要：
越肩发射火控系统主要依赖机载告警设备获取后方飞机的信息。通过分析机载告警系统的误差模型，采取蒙特卡罗法对导弹命中概率进行模拟，给出了越肩发射导弹的命中概率等高线和命中概率曲面。仿真结果表明在告警设备对目标方位角测量存在误差时，越肩发射火控系统仍能保证在一定区域内以较高的概率命中目标，即输入存在干扰时，系统具有很好的鲁棒性。
英文摘要：
The measure error of the airborne warning-system affects the performance of over the shoulder missile fire-control system directly. In this paper, the error model of warning system is analyzed. Monte Carlo experiments have been made to calculate the hit probability, as well as probability contour and probability curve surface. The simulation results show that the fire-control system of over the shoulder is robustness even though there is input disturbance, and the fire-control system promises certain hitting probability within certain launch zone under some extent measure error.
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