遵循东北老工业基地振兴战略的实施轨迹,研究2003年以来黑龙江省及内部市产业结构演变特征,运用偏离-份额分析法分析全省及省内13个城市三次产业偏离份额趋势,并基于此分析东北老工业基地振兴战略对黑龙江省产业结构演变的影响。研究显示:黑龙江省各市三次产业构成存在显著的差异,发展趋势大同小异。其中第一产业波动发展,第二产业结构不完善,第三产业近年快速发展但未来呈现竞争力减弱态势;产业构成受政策影响突出。黑龙江省总体产业结构波动发展,第一产业较第二和第三产业变化小,第三产业快速发展并推动全省产业结构由"二三一"转变为"三二一"形式,但产业竞争力水平不平衡。
This study make an analysis for the influence of revitalization of Northeast on the evolution of industrial structure in Heilongjiang. Following the implemented trajectory of the revitalization of Northeastern industrial base to research the characteristics of the industrial structure's evolution of Heilongjiang and its city since 2003, and to analyze the trend of the three industrial shift-share of Heilongjiang and its thirteen cities through the shift-share method. The analysis indicate that, there are significant differences between the three industries and their developed trend are similar in the cities. Besides, three industries differ from one another. The primary industrial development has been fluctuating, the second industrial structure was imperfect and the third industry has developed rapidly in recent years but will be weakened in the future. However, they are all affected by policies. In addition, The pattern of industrial structure was fluctuating and the first industry has changed smaller than the second and the third in Heilongjiang. The third industry has developed rapidly and has promoted the province's industrial structure from"231"to"321"form,but the level of industrial competitiveness is not balanced.