中文摘要：

在假定水库放水河道洪水演进误差和区间来水洪峰预报误差符合正态分布N（0，α）的基础上，提出了水库防洪实时补偿调度的风险分析方法；分析了峰现时间误差对防洪补偿效果的影响。并提出了基于峰现时间误差组合的防洪控制断面洪峰流量变化区间分析方法；通过算例，阐释了所提出方法对实时防洪决策的辅助作用。

英文摘要：

Assuming that the channel flood routing error and the interval inflow forecast error obey the normal distribution, the risk analysis method on real-time compensatory operation for reservoir flood control was proposed. The influence of peak time error on compensatory operation was studied and the interval analysis method of control section peak flow change based on combination peak time error was proposed. Finally, the assistant effect of the methods in real-time good control decision-making was showed with a case.