中文摘要：

依据水库实时防洪调度流程，分析了水库防洪决策风险源；提出了基于洪量预报误差分布的水库调洪演算风险分析和风险率计算方法：建立了水库实时防洪调度风险交互模拟分析模型．为实时决策中的不确定性分析提供了实用工具。

英文摘要：

According to the processes of reservoir real-time flood control operation, the risk sources of flood control decision is analyzed. Methods of reservoir flood routing risk analysis and risk rate calculation based on forecasting flood volume error distribution are raised. An interactive simulation analysis model of reservoir real-time flood control operation risk is established. It is a practical tool in uncertainty analysis of real-time decision.