中文摘要：

为了详尽地了解气候变化下上海市降水变化特征，合理开发管理城市水资源，利用上海市10个地方气象站1961—2010年逐日降水数据，综合利用累积距平、滑动平均、线性倾向估计、百分位、去趋势波动等方法系统分析近50年来上海市10个站点降水指标的季节、年际、年代际变化特征。研究发现：1）研究区降水经历了1960s、1970s年代的下降期，1980s、1990s和2000s年代的快速增长期，最早出现变化的是上海市南部地区，但是变化幅度最大、变化趋势最为复杂的是市区徐家汇站；2）研究区季节降水分配不均，且市区与郊区存在较大的数值差异，变化幅度上，各站点夏季、冬季降水呈显著增加趋势，春季和秋季降水呈不显著下降趋势；3）研究区各站点降水强度有增强趋势，主要表现在暴雨量级以下降水频次变少，但是总量增多，且暴雨与大暴雨以上量级降水频次增多，空间上各站点响应时间与幅度存在差异；4）基于百分位和DFA两种方法计算的极端降水研究都表明，研究区各站点极端降水呈显著增强趋势，两种方法计算的市区徐家汇站5年滑动降水量年递增率分别为20．1mm·（10a）。和28．3mm·（10a）-1。

英文摘要：

In order to understand the characteristics of precipitation under climate change completely, develop and manage the water resources rationally in Shanghai, the daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 of 10 meteorological stations were used. The seasonal, inter-annual and inter-decadal variation of different precipitation index in latest 50 years in Shanghai were analyzed by the methods of cumulative departure, smoothing averages, linear trend analysis, percentile, de-trended fluctuation analysis （DFA） and so on. The research indicated that firstly, Shanghai experienced a precipitation declining period in 1960s and 1970s, a rapid growth in 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, and the southern part of Shanghai was the first area which began to experience the trend variation, but the urban area was the most complex and experienced the maximum variation trend. Secondly, the seasonal distribution of precipitation was quite different both in time and spatial scale in Shanghai, besides, there was an obvious increasing trend in precipitation amount in summer and winter and annual increasing rate of precipitation amount sliding 5 years reaches 56.23 mm-（10a）-1 and 16.71 mm-（10a）-1 while spring and autumn experiencedan unobvious decreasing trend. Thirdly, there was an increasing trend about precipitation intensity, mainly displayed in that the frequency under rainstorm decreased while the amount increased, and the frequency increased in rainstorm as well as heavy rain, but there were significant time and intensity differences in urban, suburban and outer suburban district. Finally, the extreme rainfall was studied by the method of percentile and DFA, both of the two methods indicated that the extreme rainfall increased a lot under the climate change scenarios, the urban area experienced a bigger growth rate than other areas.