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中文摘要：
利用MATLAB编程软件,分别建立BP神经网络和AR模型,采用全国出生率,死亡率,老年抚养率等9个指标作为样本,分别对BP网络和AR模型进行训练,预测5年后的人口数量.结果表明这两种方法预测人口均是可行的,效果较好,误差很小,但是AR模型较适合线性预测,而BP网络适合较非线性预测.
英文摘要：
Two types of population forecasting models based on AR model and BP neural network are developed by using MATLAB software,collecting the national birth rate,mortality,elderly raising rate etc.indicators as sample.Using BP and AR model training it respectively to predict the closing population of 5 years.The result shows that the two methods predict population are feasible and error is very small.But AR model is more suitable for linear forecast,and BP network more suitable for nonlinear prediction.
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