中文摘要：

由于耕地资源的稀缺性,既要＂吃饭＂又要＂建设＂的要求使得农地用途转换决策的合理制定尤为艰难和关键。文中在充分考虑特定地块用途转换的空间自相关基础上,建立了农地城市流转决策的空间经济计量模型,研究地块空间自相关、地块自身特征和可及性对农地城市流转决策的影响。利用＂第二次全国土地调查＂数据,以天津市宁河县大北涧沽镇为例进行了实证研究。研究表明：现状地块用途会显著影响其相邻地块的用途;当权重门槛距离为400m时,地块现状用途之间的空间相关性表现最强;地块面积、离公路距离、离沟渠距离、离农村道路距离对农地用途转换有显著影响。

英文摘要：

Because of the scarcity of cultivated land,making the decision of converting cultivated land use was difficult when people considering both food production and city construction. This research built up spatial econometric models for simulating rural-urban land conversion decision with the consideration of land parcel＇s spatial correlation. A spatial mixed autoregressive linear probability model was used to explore the effects on cultivated land preservation decision by land parcel＇s spatial correlation,land parcel＇s characters,and their accessibility to roads,ditches,CBD etc. Taking Dabeijiangu Town,in Ninghe County,Tianjin as an example,using the data of the ＂ Second Investigation of Land-use Change＂,the results show that the way of land use will influence the adjacent land use significantly. When the weight threshold distance is 400m,the spatial autoregressive model has a best fitting degree. In addition,the farmland parcel＇s area,the distances to urban roads,country roads and ditches might significantly influence the possibility of agricultural land converting to urban use,but the land parcel＇s soil grade and the distance to the urban center do not.